The leading India-advisory firm Three Headed Lion Inc. (THL) announces the release of its strategic update to the 2013 Guar Gum Report: INDIA. All signs indicate that the Guar Gum fever that seized the market last year has abated.
"We view the current cycle as a turning point for the guar gum industry in India," explains Javed Matin, chief analyst and cofounder of Three Headed Lion. "There is a sense that the 'Guar Gum Gold Rush' is over. After a short rally during December 2012 prices of guar seed and guar gum were relatively stable during the first quarter of 2013, and there are signs of downward pressure on prices."
The report is available online at threeheadedlion.com/guargum.html.
The opaque nature of guar gum's supply chain in India still demands continuous close monitoring of developments on the ground to better predict pricing and supply trends as 2013 season unfolds.
Matin says that there are several unknowns that could have a significant impact to the stability of the guar market. "Companies must still be wary and ask the right questions to avoid surprise. These include:
- Will the nexus between influential traders and processors once again influence guar gum prices this year?
- Will the Indian regulator, Future Markets Commission (FMC) allow futures trading of guar on Indian commodity exchange?
- Does FMC have the mandate and ability to check insider trading, cartelization and price manipulation if guar gets relisted on the commodities exchange?
- Is the government contemplating policy changes for guar gum?
- Are there any socio-political-security trends that have the potential to impact the movement of freight from guar gum processors to the export ports in India?
- What will happen if export-ports encounter labor issues or greater capacity constraints or a major security breach takes place?
- What is the current sentiment of the farmers? Will they once again prefer growing guar over other competing crops in larger numbers?
The 2013 Guar Gum Report: INDIA report provides an in-depth analysis of the state of the guar gum supply chain in India by providing intelligence on:
- availability of guar seeds to meet guar gum demand
- guar gum processing capacity and production target
- current demand
- key industry trends
- logistics readiness
- current risks to supply and price of guar gum
Throughout the year, THL continues to monitor the guar gum supply chain and publish updates to the key indicators at critical junctures to provide an assessment of how the market is evolving.