From The Winter 2004 Issue of Natural Grocery Buyer

Statshots

Low Carbs, Big Numbers
The low-carbohydrate business buzz is sizzling like a T-bone on the grill. Interest from Wall Street attests to the money-making potential of the category. In October, investment banking firms Goldman Sachs and Parthenon Capital paid between $600 million and $800 million to buy controlling interest in Atkins Nutritionals Inc. The investors are managing the company and will likely take it public later this year.

Expect speculation to start soon on the offering price for the stock. Just don’t expect the figure to be, um, slender.

Here are a variety of other statistics that could help to define the low carbohydrate industry.

• LowCarbiz, which publishes a magazine and a Web site for the category, estimates the size of the low-carb economy at $15 billion. The total includes food, books, classes, programs and advertising expenditures of companies promoting products.
LowCarbiz predicts the market will grow to more than $25 billion in 2004. The reason: Big food companies and restaurant chains are entering the market in earnest this year. Expect a flood of new products from companies such as Frito-Lay, Blimpie and Coca-Cola.


• Food companies continue to roll out an astonishing number of new low-carb products, but researchers disagree about exactly how many.
Mintel International Group says 259 products were released in 2003; that compares with 63 introduced in 2002 and 48 in 2001. But ProductScan Online says 633 new products were introduced last year, compared with 339 in 2002.

Overall, sources estimate 1,600 low-carb products are being sold.


• In February 2003, according to NPD Group, an estimated 2.7 million people in the United States were on a low-carb diet. By August 2003, the number had grown almost fivefold to 10.1 million.
NPD’s numbers pale by comparison to those in a survey released late last year by the Grocery Manufacturers of America. That study found that 116 million people—that’s 40 percent of the U.S. population—plan to try the low-carb regime in 2004.


• Keto Foods, one of the largest low-carbohydrate food manufacturers, is projecting 300 percent growth in 2004, according to a recent article in Fortune. Its products will number 212 by the end of the year, up from 140 last year. According to an article in BusinessWeek, Atkins produces 120 products.
• The low-carb business is taking a bite out of the bread industry as consumers cut back on their white, sourdough and cracked wheat. In the United States, bread consumption peaked at 147 pounds per person in 1997; in 2003 consumption dropped to 137 pounds.

Let’s Do Lunch—at Chez Cubicle
Question: What’s Americans’ favorite location for lunch? No, it’s not McDonald’s.

Answer: Their desks.

A recent survey by the American Dietetic Association and ConAgra Foods found that 67 percent of Americans dine al desko for lunch, and 61 percent snack throughout the day at their workstations. Fortunately, most people get out of the office for dinner. The survey found that only about 10 percent of men and 7 percent of women do desktop dining for dinner.

Your Customers Spend How Much?
A study by research firm Mintel found that Americans spend an average of $95 per person per week at the grocer.

• For people aged 35 to 54, spending is $105 per person—attributable to the fact that this group has kids in the house.
• Single people spend an average of $63 every week.
• Examined from a household perspective, spending per person declines to $30 each when there are more than four people living together.