Over the past decade, businesses and industry have been experiencing a pretty consistent string of disruptions: landline phones, cable/satellite television, video stores, print media, brick and mortar retail, the list goes on. Today it is our food system that is being disrupted.

Consumers are beginning to wake up to the complexities of our food system and the consequences of the trade-offs we have been making for years. They are beginning to see the impact that convenient, inexpensive food is having on our health, environment and social welfare. Cost and convenience are of unparalleled importance to consumers; this isn’t in doubt and this won’t change. Time and money will always be our most recognizable and limited resources. While these won’t go away, the importance of other factors is beginning to play a stronger role, and consumers are increasingly willing to spend time or money making better choices. Of increasing importance in defining "better" and "value" are higher-order benefits like health, the environment and social issues.

While the consumer has spoken loud and clear for some time now, Wall Street is now speaking even louder. Wall Street seems to be tired of waiting for the major CPGs to adapt to changing consumer needs, and these brands are now under fire for forestalling the inevitable investment. Big Food brands can no longer postpone action or make only safe bets.

Disruption is here, and with this will come a decline for many of the brands which populate our grocery store shelves. I’d argue that convenience foods are among those at greatest risk of being "rightsized." They won’t disappear, but steadily consumers will look for better options with lower impact.

For example...

I was on the plane the other day with a man who sells sensors to manufacturers. He recently spoke with a microwave popcorn manufacturer looking to improve the humidity sensors on its production lines. We got to talking about how much effort goes into producing microwave popcorn. The amount of process and engineering that goes into that perfect bag of microwave popcorn is impressive. However, it also illustrates the stark comparison to bulk, homemade popcorn:

I don’t have sales figures for bulk popcorn, but SPINS told me that sales of microwave popcorn are down about 5.5 percent over the past two years, with the declines being driven by conventional brands.

In the not-so-distant future, we may find that convenience alone will no longer be enough. Microwave popcorn is seen as convenient, but it is also more expensive, creates more waste and may be seen as less healthy. To thrive as a convenience option in the new food economy, you may also need to offer compelling connection to the higher-order benefits which are growing in importance.

As microwave popcorn finds its way back to select occasions, it will fall from its place as the norm. Alternative snacks and older methods of popping will grow again. Maybe there isn’t much money to be made in selling bulk popcorn, but if you sell microwave popcorn, or the convenience equivalent in your category of the grocery store, I’d recommend looking closely at how you prepare for declining demand and sales.

As consumer values shift and as engagement in food grows, more and more consumers will awaken to the true cost of decisions that have become habitual; they will remember the relative cost, simplicity and health benefits of stove or air-popped popcorn.

What is the microwave popcorn equivalent in your business? How will changing consumer needs, values and preferences impact your business?