With value and volume CAGRs (compound annual growth rate) of 2.8 percent and 2.2 percent respectively, the bakery and cereals sector will be one of the slowest growing sectors in the Japanese food industry between 2012 and 2017. These growth rates are less than half of the fastest growing sector. Soup, bread and rolls took the majority share of the sector in 2012, with value and volume shares of 33.4 percent and 38.6 percent respectively; however, this established, mature market will display a value CAGR of 2.9 percent and volume CAGR of just 2.3 percent to 2017. In contrast, breakfast cereals will grow at value and volume CAGRs of 4.4 percent and 3.9 percent respectively, ahead of the sector, between 2012 and 2017, as in some areas, the category begins to replace the traditional breakfast foods to which Japanese consumers are accustomed.
Hypermarkets and supermarkets have rapidly gained share of the Japanese bakery and cereals sector over the past few years, with department stores also displaying a reasonable increase in share; this comes at the expense of food and drink specialists and more traditional stores, both of whom lost share for the same period.