Supplement Business Report offers clear look at post-COVID market

Four years ago, when supplement companies were working around lockdown restrictions and chasing ingredients stalled in a fractured supply chain, there were already whispers of a post-pandemic “new normal,” in which consumers would be more educated and more motivated and, in turn, spend more on supplements.

After a shockingly steep sales growth slowdown in 2022, that “new normal” might have seemed like a mirage, but with the dust of the pandemic continuing to settle, the new NBJ Supplement Business Report can now better define the long-term impact.

And the news is good.

In 2019, before the lockdowns and face masks, NBJ made its standard five-year projections and foresaw a $64.4 billion market for 2024, the last look through that pre-COVID lens. Now, in 2024, NBJ projects a $67.53 billion market for 2024, meaning COVID appears to have added $3 billion to the market after all the spikes and dips are worked out.

Does that $3 billion represent the arrival of the “new normal?” We could argue that it does, but we should also consider that the best of the new normal is yet to come.

Many blamed the 2022 slowdown on consumers overspending on supplements in 2020 and 2021. Overstocked medicine cabinets do not drive growth, but now it looks as though shoppers have worked through the surplus. Sales began to recover in 2023, and even immunity sales appear to have bottomed out, as sales growth reappears in the most recent estimates. But all those “new normal” consumers who moved into the market during the pandemic might still be figuring out where supplements fit into their post-pandemic lives. NBJ expects solid growth in mood and mental health supplements and sports nutrition as indicators of what that fit might look like.

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It’s possible the new normal has arrived. It’s also possible both brands and consumers are still discovering what that means.

Get a closer look into today’s supplement industry with the NBJ Supplement Business Report 2024.