February 9, 2023
NBJ has released its first-ever Supplement Market Economy Update: Special Report, which is available now. Research in the report includes not only updated market sizing forecasts, but results from industry and consumer surveys conducted late last year as well. Here are some top takeaways:
Total industry growth slows: Coming off of the record growth in 2020, NBJ had projected a normalization to 4.2% in 2022, but the reality of the year was a further slowdown than anyone anticipated. We now estimate growth of 1.7% in 2022, bringing sales to a total about $1.5 billion lower than previously thought. Even with this slowdown, we project sales will be back on track with pre-COVID projections by 2024, and pulling back ahead by 2025.
Consumers feeling the impacts of inflation: In a survey of U.S. consumers repeated in July, September and November of 2022, we found that consumers are definitely feeling the impacts of inflation. In November, 63% of consumers reported feeling pressure or stress due to inflation and rising costs, up from the previous two survey periods. Even more importantly, 61% of consumers have reported changing their grocery shopping behaviors as a result. Vitamins and minerals fare slightly better than other shopping categories, with 17% of consumers reporting buying more in November than during the same time last year.
Biggest surprises come in shifting channel dynamics: One of the most surprising drops in growth last year came in e-commerce, which dropped to an estimated 3.9% growth, coming off years of double digits. An additional surprise was an uptick in mass market retail growth, the only channel where we increased growth estimates, to 6.7%, given a shift in consumer preference toward store brands and value brands.
This updated research is covered in NBJ’s Supplement Market Economy Update, which is available now. Research in the report includes not only updated market sizing forecasts, but results from industry and consumer surveys conducted late last year as well.
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